How dating apps predict the future of traditional higher ed

The internet changed the dating world forever. What it means for colleges

In many scenarios, the internet is the best place for a marketplace to exist. The internet provides more choice and low switching costs. These factors create efficiencies in the market that allow for it to thrive.

Dan McMurtrie wrote an interesting piece on the changes of the dating “market”.

The piece claims that the majority of relationships now begin on dating apps (probably about 75%!). (1)

“Why? From the perspective of prime reproductive age individuals, cost structures (safety, monetary, time, social frictions, etc.) have shifted, with many dropping to effectively zero. Because costs (physical safety, social stigma) have been disproportionately impactful to women, their elimination has had the effect of flipping the power dynamic in the market to favor women in prime reproductive age, though the dynamic changes with age.”

The internet has changed the dating world forever. Dating app users have infinite choice of a potential partner and they have low costs to switch from one partner to the next.

Before internet dating, there were many frictions. There were far fewer options and access to meet new people. The internet solves this with ease of access to options. Also, there was the awkwardness of turning down people in close social circles. On the internet, there is little risk to either party to turn down an encounter (lower social costs). This is different from a bar or church interaction.

In short, as the internet does, it made the dating “market” more efficient. The speed of finding “the best” match has increased. There are countless societal consequences of this major shift.

The change in the dating market will predict how the college system slowly declines.

The US College system has largely been unscathed by the internet. Over the next 20 years, the internet will slowly push the current university system into a crisis. Most colleges will have to drastically change their model or cost structures to combat the changes the internet will impose on them.

The high cost of college will help move this forward as people become desperate for alternatives. Luckily, the internet will provide more choice and more efficiencies around finding solutions to replace college.

In terms of learning the actual material, the internet can supply people with nearly all the required information at near zero cost. Consider MIT’s OpenCourseWare (2):

MIT is doing a great thing with OpenCourseWare, but how does this align with the cost?

It seems that we are paying for the diploma and the credential rather than the actual content that we are learning in the classroom. This is an existential crisis for the US college system. The current system is telling future employers, “we’ve vetted the following students and there is a low risk that this student will make a bad future employee.”

“Credentialing” is essential to understanding the dynamics of the future of college. A college diploma is an excellent credential. It signals to employers dedication, hard work, intelligence, and more. However, the internet will find better ways to credential people for the new working world.

The college credential is akin to meeting a partner through a friend, at work, or at church. The person has signaled to you that they are “credentialed” as a future partner. They likely hold similar values and have had similar experiences to you. Dating apps disrupt that credential system by proving to its users that it can credential people better than your friends, work, or church. Notice some of the highlights of popular dating apps: education, current job, age, and smoking and drinking habits. This has proved to many an adequate form of credentialing.

Meeting people online has increased dramatically. The stigma is gone. (1)

What will it take to allow the internet to provide the same credentials that Hinge provided to daters?

The “stigma” around the credential of a college degree has remained high. Parents and students alike are are afraid of taking the risk of not going to college. The college alternatives have not been tested and proved out. Similarly, companies are not willing to take the risk of hiring an employee that does not have a stamp of approval from a college.

Regarding dating apps, it took a decade for the stigma of meeting someone online to fade. Slowly people got more comfortable with the idea that meeting someone “credentialed” by Hinge or OkCupid was just as good as someone “credentialed” by a friend or a bar you happened to be at.

US Colleges will slowly decline in step with the social acceptance of other forms of credentialing. We have to move closer to a time where people are comfortable with not having a degree and finding credentials elsewhere.

We’re seeing the beginning of this shift. A popular example is the Lambda School. The Lambda school offers zero upfront cost for learning to code. In return, students can enter an income share agreement in which they pay a portion of their future income.

Disruptions like the Lambda school will continue to take market share from the current college system. As the Lambda school and others break the stigma of needing a college degree, it will become more common for people to consider other options after high school.

After this, we will see a similar up and to the right shift like we saw in the “met online” line in the graph above. At this point, the internet will do its magic. People will have nearly unlimited options of credentialing for any career path they wish: bootcamps, apprenticeships, shadowing, traditional courses.

There will be increased transparency with the cost and benefit, similar to the Lambda School.

The unlimited options will give consumers of “credentials” far more options and thus better “matches” of needs and wants. The efficiency of matching of the dating market has probably improved the quality of matches. See the decline in divorce probability graph below:

For many reasons, the divorce rate is down. (1)

Similar to the dating market, switching costs will be lower for the internet credentialing system. There will be far fewer barriers to deciding between options. Geography, class size, and meal plans will all become meaningless as we move online.

We are beginning to see the fall of US Colleges. Forbes notes that “According to Moody’s, at least 25% of private colleges are now running deficits.” In addition, “According to Education Dive, more than 100 for-profit and career colleges closed between 2016-17 and 2017-18 alone.” (3)

There are many questions and hurdles to the move to the internet.

First, the scarcity of the current college system is great at choosing the best of the best. A Harvard degree signals that you are among the absolute best and brightest. It will probably take a long time to erode the prestige of this degree. Likely, the internet will impact the very best school the least (or take the longest to impact).

Also, what will replace the “growing up” and social aspect of college? College is valuable in that it allows teenagers to grow up, find themselves, become their own person - all of the points you see in the college commercials. I don’t see this as having enough power for people to continue to pay tens of thousands for a college degree. However, likely we will need something to replace this aspect of college.

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